"We risk becoming the best informed society that has ever died of ignorance"
- Rubén Blades

"You can't make up anything anymore. The world itself is a satire. All you're doing is recording it"
- Art Buchwald

"It's getting exciting now, two and one-half. Think of everything we've accomplished, man. Out these windows, we will view the collapse of financial history. One step closer to economic equilibrium"
- Tyler Durden

"It is your corrupt we claim. It is your evil that will be sought by us. With every breath, we shall hunt them down."
- Boondock Saints

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Goldman's Global Leading Indicator

Goldman Sachs has released their Global Leading Indicator and highlighted a slight contraction, 3.5% year-on-year for April, down from 3.6% year-on-year in March.  

The Squid has been expecting this turn towards positive growth acceleration which parallels their positive outlook for GDP (which must be the only one not being lowered)

“Momentum came in at 0.18%mom, up marginally from last month’s revised reading of 0.17%. With April GLI momentum almost the same as the readings in March and February, the GLI indicates that global growth is no longer decelerating (though it is not accelerating yet either), ending six months of slowing.”

Goldman’s Economic Research note points to the GLI Swirlogram which shows the global industrial cycle is on the edge of the “Expansion” phase.  “This phase is generally the most supportive for risky assets.”

Goldman does expect to their Leading Indicator to move future into “Expansion” which matches their US growth outlook and the readings in the coming months will offer “further confirmation”.