tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-88653150638077993432024-03-05T12:12:26.080-05:00CALIBRATED CONFIDENCEWe Risk Becoming The Best Informed Society To Ever Die Of IgnoranceUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger571125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-73444445525917437462020-08-27T10:07:00.004-04:002020-08-27T10:08:51.084-04:00This Industry Is Entirely Full of Sh!t<div style="text-align: justify;">The FED is full of shit. Everything they are getting away with happens because the population is ignorant.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">You all deserve what happens from here on in.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><span></span><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2020/08/this-industry-is-entirely-full-of-sht.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-50282413450001347052017-09-23T02:11:00.000-04:002017-09-23T02:11:54.657-04:00An Open Letter To The Financial Media<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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In what will likely be a vain attempt at reminding readers of the ridiculousness of television media, here is a posting from ZeroHedge.blogspot.com from 2009 that will leave you breathless (something the old Zero Hedge was known and loved for, especially when it came to posting on Flash Trading and derivatives). The posting has been reformatted to make consumption a bit easier. </div>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2017/09/an-open-letter-to-financial-media.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-39417054875084446842017-02-05T02:56:00.000-05:002017-02-05T07:23:06.191-05:00Snapchat Is Shit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRcZDqCOZ5DMcK5bzMwnOP-y_R2Syt5gfHKJlY2HbNcHfdjzjgvD9dTJlQiXFmruHlJqiCKpKL3iAJ_3Ff12rPsTBAg8scMynec4y9Gk5gIknm7bmbOOnTgg6-igMPzvp1wA72lpxDMJqR/s1600/snapchat-these-nuts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRcZDqCOZ5DMcK5bzMwnOP-y_R2Syt5gfHKJlY2HbNcHfdjzjgvD9dTJlQiXFmruHlJqiCKpKL3iAJ_3Ff12rPsTBAg8scMynec4y9Gk5gIknm7bmbOOnTgg6-igMPzvp1wA72lpxDMJqR/s400/snapchat-these-nuts.jpg" width="400"></a></div>
</div></div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2017/02/snapchat-is-shit.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-3978600100074043732017-01-01T11:55:00.001-05:002017-01-01T11:58:48.710-05:00You Should Never Put Your Money Into The US Equity Market<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24TWTR&src=ctag">$TWTR</a> rebuffs hostile takeover offer from Jeff Skilling</div>
— CalConfidence (@CalConfidence) <a href="https://twitter.com/CalConfidence/status/814479848454418432">December 29, 2016</a></blockquote>
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</div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2017/01/you-should-never-put-your-money-into-us.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-18108002801632608002016-12-19T05:03:00.002-05:002016-12-19T05:03:47.714-05:00VLCC Rates Continue To Climb Alongside Sell-Side Crude Estimates<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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As noted <a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/when-ships-fly.html" target="_blank">previously</a>, shipping rates continue to climb. Oddly, anchored ships remain about 8% of the fleet with <a href="https://twitter.com/CalConfidence/status/810408134049206273" target="_blank">four more being added to the bay I monitor</a>, which helps to raise spot prices and thereby generating beneficial economics to shippers who choose to anchor these bad boys on the water for weeks if not months at a time because fools like CNBC enjoy looking at onshore inventories and asking "is it priced in?" which in this case, yes, it's pricing in but that is no surprise given the fraud and manipulation that takes place in the oil market. By the way, did you really believe OPEC and Non-OPEC would work out a fully fledged production freeze?</div>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/vlcc-rates-continue-to-climb-alongside.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-1727913403416814492016-12-16T05:27:00.000-05:002016-12-16T05:27:19.578-05:00Insider Trading: Friday December 16<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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</div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/insider-trading-friday-december-16.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-76967240905282846822016-12-16T03:46:00.001-05:002016-12-16T03:49:20.291-05:00Hey CNBC, BLOW IT OUT YOUR ASS!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Following the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20160921.pdf" target="_blank">FOMC minutes release</a> on Oct 12 of the September 21-22 meeting we can see TSY Ex. TIPS net positions bombing out for securities between 6- & 7-years maturity. Now we see the sprint into the 2-year paper from Primary dealers. The short term focus is the highest demand. </div>
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</div></div></div></div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/hey-cnbc-blow-it-out-your-ass.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-90561193256408415682016-12-16T01:13:00.000-05:002016-12-16T01:13:43.833-05:00When Ships Fly<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Tanker rates for VLCCs are flying higher as China imports of crude swell by 900Kbpd YTD to 7.6Mbpd. This year, the rate for VLCCs has climbed from a low of $14,400/Day to $52,600/Day. </div>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/when-ships-fly.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-33758562421779642852016-12-14T04:00:00.002-05:002016-12-14T04:00:58.207-05:00Insider Trading: Wednesday December 14<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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I'm going for a drive in the Dubai desert so the reading is thin this morning for me.<br>
</div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/insider-trading-wednesday-december-14.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-2258793494304139252016-12-14T00:37:00.000-05:002016-12-14T00:47:03.032-05:00TRADER ALERT: User Fakes Being Bloomberg Reporter, Spreads False Info About Deutsche Bank<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
You have to be smart and on your toes out here. Sadly, this novice attempted to punk me and now he's been reported to the SEC and further having his efforts documented here.<br>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/trader-alert-user-fakes-being-bloomberg.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-25563275165588305542016-12-13T05:50:00.000-05:002016-12-13T05:50:07.345-05:00Source Confirms Samsung Management Knew Of Note 7 Fire Hazard In Early Stage Production<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The Samsung Galaxy Note 7, that phone that <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/10/14/dot-bans-samsung-galaxy-note-7-flights/92066322/" target="_blank">no one can take on airplanes</a> because it <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/why-is-samsung-galaxy-note-7-exploding-overheating/" target="_blank">explodes</a> into a fireball, was allowed to go to production following warnings from Samsung's engineering department according to a source I spoke with.</div>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/source-confirms-samsung-management-knew.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-90521306074437466142016-12-13T05:18:00.000-05:002016-12-13T05:18:53.724-05:00Insider Trading: Tuesday December 13<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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I'm overseas doing "research" so I missed posting yesterday. Here's the overnight recap.<br>
</div></div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/insider-trading-tuesday-december-13.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-50024291379732211902016-12-12T00:21:00.000-05:002016-12-12T21:50:02.378-05:00Trivago IPO Should Be Illegal<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHGHv21J9KTFI10mRyZW7wlnKeGt8nzzSSLtluCuRyi6WaO3_ku-MMaeupn9vGfR_IOT2xAps1oVjei-iFbmkgQ_CK7xuzFrl_wuZ-G5BPnnsYp7UeNygd0AwywTWlia20ANXfiQ4IYjvw/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHGHv21J9KTFI10mRyZW7wlnKeGt8nzzSSLtluCuRyi6WaO3_ku-MMaeupn9vGfR_IOT2xAps1oVjei-iFbmkgQ_CK7xuzFrl_wuZ-G5BPnnsYp7UeNygd0AwywTWlia20ANXfiQ4IYjvw/s400/Capture.PNG" width="400"></a></div>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/trivago-ipo-should-be-illegal.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-11592666688073353852016-12-09T05:17:00.001-05:002016-12-09T05:17:32.790-05:00Baker-Hughes December 9th Rig Count Preview<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Once again we reach Friday and the amateur oil traders like to pretend to play with the big boys by talking about rig counts as if they are purposefully unaware of how to account for marginal utility improvements in a given rig over the past 50 years, but I'll digress.<br>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/baker-hughes-december-9th-rig-count.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-2018404279346339952016-12-09T03:27:00.001-05:002016-12-09T03:27:53.597-05:00Insider Trading: Friday December 9<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/insider-trading-friday-december-9.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-32863829122928766752016-12-08T06:17:00.001-05:002016-12-08T06:23:32.318-05:00The Future Of Oil: F--K All<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The oil market is a mess. OPEC headlines have jolted the algorithms trading predictive order flow away from fundamentals and into the Twittersphere but rest assured because WaPo hasn't labelled OPEC headlines "fake news" yet then what we've seen must be real news (except it is not, though at times it is....get it?)</div>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-future-of-oil-f-k-all.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-54368239656481026902016-12-08T01:39:00.000-05:002016-12-08T02:43:55.170-05:00Insider Trading: December 8<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/insider-trading-december-7.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-82615308417797386422016-12-03T03:55:00.000-05:002016-12-03T03:58:29.702-05:00The Mozambique/LNG Sinkhole <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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</div></div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-mozambiquelng-sinkhole.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-18917224213035013412016-07-17T12:23:00.003-04:002016-07-17T12:35:01.427-04:00Who Flew Over The Erdogan Nest?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Friday was unique. At the close of US markets news broke of a military coup in Turkey. As I do every Friday night, I embraced my inner hermit and avoided going out. Instead I did what any single, early 30 year-old on Wall Street would do...I opened my satellite tracking software and monitored Turkish air-traffic, ships, and Military vessel movements for about 3.5 hours. I know, you're jealous.<br>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A farce involves self-centered characters seeking to attain some type of endpoint outcome. The rumors and unfounded "chatter" driven headlines we've seen, specifically since January, have been the bullet point recap of some fantastic theater farce designed to manipulate future expectations during a period of high uncertainty and elevated market volatility.</span></div>
</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2016/04/talk-might-not-be-cheap-but-in-oil.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-33341738727471534022015-07-04T11:21:00.000-04:002015-07-04T11:21:56.545-04:00Greek Preview On Sunday<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">What's going to happen Sunday with the Greek extend-and-pretend-dum? Sara Eisen has been asking anyone who has time to spare to join CNBC for commentary in the past three weeks if 'a Grexit priced in'. In usual fashion, last weekend we were shown yet again that nothing is ever actually 'priced in' as one can not price uncertainty and randomness. I still respect and like her but this kind of vague commentary without accountability is hurtful to viewers. I'll hold out hopes that iCNBC, the subsidiary of Apple and main marketing arm, will learn this someday.</span></div>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2015/07/greek-preview-on-sunday.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-85367993924633370732015-06-30T19:29:00.001-04:002015-06-30T19:29:55.020-04:00Life On The H2O Aboard A Shipper<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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This short documentary taped by a new ship mate is a great view of life on the ocean for 6+ months. His camera skills and narrating are above par and overall the guy did a solid job, so good in fact I have to save here for my future self to share. <b>2 personal favorites</b> - the part about bribing Egyptians to pass the Suez and the way the ship sets up defenses when traveling in Pirated waters</div>
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Oil tankers are just sitting in the water, motionless. Floating storage vessels, like <a href="http://www.container-transportation.com/knock-nevis.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Knock Nevis</span></a>, are just hanging out off the coast of Bahrain. The largest oil tanker, <a href="http://www.aukevisser.nl/supertankers/id137.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">TI Europe</span></a>, rests quietly off the coast of Malaysia. </div>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2015/05/oil-tankers-sit-traders-have-fit.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-36316307154896099152015-04-17T16:56:00.000-04:002015-04-17T16:56:09.105-04:00How To Know If Stocks Are A Good Investment...<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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</div></div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2015/04/how-to-know-if-stocks-are-good.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8865315063807799343.post-78958155315225182642014-12-14T14:30:00.004-05:002014-12-14T14:31:23.629-05:00Structured Paper And Crude Oil<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I'm posting this here for future reference for myself but since there are 1,000s of you linked to my RSS for this blog, I will explain what I'm storing here.<br>
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</div><a href="http://calibratedconfidence.blogspot.com/2014/12/structured-paper-and-crude-oil.html#more">Read more »</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com