Goldman Sachs has released their Global Leading Indicator
and highlighted a slight contraction, 3.5% year-on-year for April, down from
3.6% year-on-year in March.
The Squid has been expecting this turn towards positive growth acceleration which parallels their positive outlook for GDP (which must be the only one not being lowered)
“Momentum came in at 0.18%mom, up marginally from last
month’s revised reading of 0.17%. With April GLI momentum almost the same as
the readings in March and February, the GLI indicates that global growth is no
longer decelerating (though it is not accelerating yet either), ending six
months of slowing.”
Goldman’s Economic Research note points to the GLI Swirlogram
which shows the global industrial cycle is on the edge of the “Expansion”
phase. “This phase is generally the most
supportive for risky assets.”
Goldman does expect to their Leading Indicator to move
future into “Expansion” which matches their US growth outlook and the readings
in the coming months will offer “further confirmation”.
